NITROGEN

According to U.S. Geological Survey publications, ammonia was produced domestically by 16 companies at 35 plants in 16 states during 2022. About 60 percent of total U.S. ammonia production capacity was based in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas because of those states’ large reserves of natural gas, the dominant domestic feedstock for ammonia production. Production and consumption U.S. production was estimated to be 13 Mt of nitrogen (N) content in 2022, a slight increase from that in 2021. In 2022, U.S. producers operated at about 86 percent of their rated capacity (excluding plants that were idle for the entire year). Apparent consumption was estimated to have decreased by 4 percent to 14 Mt of N content in 2022 from 14.6 Mt of N content in 2021. The United States was the world’s third-ranked ammonia producer after China and Russia and the world’s second-ranked consumer after China. Urea, ammonium nitrate, nitric acid, ammonium phosphates and ammonium sulfate were the major derivatives of ammonia produced in the United States, in descending order of tonnage. Approximately 88 percent of domestic ammonia apparent consumption was for fertilizer use, including anhydrous ammonia for direct application, urea, ammonium nitrates, ammonium phosphates and other nitrogen compounds. Ammonia also was used to produce explosives, plastics, synthetic fibers and resins and numerous other chemical compounds. Figure 1 U.S. supply and apparent consumption of ammonia, 2002–2022 (Kelly T.D. and Matos). Foreign trade According to the U.S. Census Bureau, imports of ammonia by N content decreased by 7 percent to 1.93 Mt in 2022 from 2.08 Mt in 2021. Trinidad and Tobago (51 percent) and Canada (47 percent) were the leading sources of U.S. ammonia imports. U.S. ammonia exports increased by three times to 699 kt by N content in 2022 from 231 kt in 2021. Ammonia exports were primarily shipped to Norway (25 percent) and Morocco (24 percent). Prices U.S. Gulf Coast ammonia prices in 2022 averaged $1,068/st, 85 percent higher than the average in 2021. The Gulf Coast ammonia price was $1,030/st at the beginning of 2022, increased to a high of 1,475/st in late March through mid-April and then decreased to $935/st by year end. Natural gas is often used as the feedstock to produce ammonia fertilizers, and the cost of natural gas can account for 70 to 90 percent of the production costs. The Henry Hub spot natural-gas price ranged between $3.45 and $9.85/million Btu for most of the year, with an average of $6.45/million Btu. The U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration projected that Henry Hub natural-gas spot prices will average $6.00/million Btu in 2023. Outlook A long period of stable and low natural-gas prices in the United States has made it economical for companies to upgrade existing ammonia plants and plan for the construction of new nitrogen projects. The additional capacity has reduced ammonia imports but likely will not eliminate nitrogen imports (Fig. 1). Expansion in the ammonia industry took place in the United States throughout the past five years; however, no additional U.S. ammonia capacity increases have been announced. In the next four years global capacity additions are expected in Africa, eastern Europe and south Asia. As part of the capacity increase, several decarbonized ammonia projects are being proposed. Demand for ammonia is expected to increase by 1 percent per year depending on the availability and cost, with the largest increase in demand expected in Latin America. According to 10-year projections (2022–2032) by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, plantings for the eight major field crops (barley, corn, oats, rice, sorghum, soybeans, upland cotton and wheat) in the United States are expected to remain at about 100 Mha. Corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to account for about 90 percent of acreage utilization for the eight crops. Corn production accounts for about one-half of U.S. fertilizer use and planting fewer crops affects the demand for nitrogen fertilizers. Overall U.S. corn acreage is expected to remain about the same through the projected period. Corn yields are expected to remain high, with corn being used more for feed and residual use than for ethanol.

NITROGEN

Authored by:
L.E. Apodaca

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From sessions to strategy: Revealing long-term and emerging innovation trends in data analytics, intelligent systems and automation

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To view the past issues of the UCA magazine you must be a member of SME/UCA.

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