Exploring stakeholder preferences in evaluation of resilience strategies for post-mining transformation projects

This paper addresses the urgent need to transform post-mining landscapes (especially openpit lignite mines) into sustainable and resilient systems. These areas face significant environmental and geotechnical challenges due to legacy infrastructures and climate vulnerabilities. The concept of resilience, rooted in general systems theory (GST), is expanded here to include ecological, social and technical dimensions. To operationalize resilience in post-mining contexts, we propose a novel methodology: quantitative force field analysis (QFFA). This hybrid approach integrates force field analysis (FFA) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to quantify stakeholder preferences and rank alternative resilience strategies. The methodology is applied to the Megalopolis lignite mine in Greece (Fig. 1). Statement of the problem Despite the theoretical richness of resilience literature, its practical application in post-mining projects remains limited. These projects involve diverse stakeholders, such as government, local communities, nongovernmental organizations and industry, whose conflicting interests often hinder progress. Traditional qualitative methods fail to capture the complexity of stakeholder dynamics. The lack of robust quantitative tools leads to suboptimal decision-making. The proposed QFFA fills this gap by enabling systematic evaluation of stakeholder-driven forces and guiding strategy selection. Materials and methods This study focuses on transforming post-mining landscapes, particularly those impacted by openpit lignite mining, into resilient and sustainable systems. These areas are often severely disturbed in terms of geomorphology, ecology and geotechnical stability, making them highly vulnerable to natural hazards such as floods, landslides, soil erosion and seismic events, many of which are intensified by climate change. The research emphasizes the integration of resilience engineering measures into broader post-mining transformation programs, including circular economy (CE) practices. To address the complexity of stakeholder involvement and strategy evaluation, we propose a hybrid methodology called quantitative force field analysis (QFFA). This approach combines qualitative and quantitative techniques to assess stakeholder preferences and rank resilience strategies. The methodology is structured around three core components. First, qualitative research was conducted to review the literature on theoretical foundations of resilience, its relevance to post-mining contexts, and the stakeholder perceptions. Second, quantitative research was carried out integrating two effective decision-making tools: (1) The force field analysis (FFA), originally developed by Kurt Lewin, which identifies driving and restraining forces behind change. In this study, stakeholder preferences for each resilience activity were quantified on a scale from 0 (fully resisting) to 5 (fully supporting). (2) Then, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the relative importance of each resilient activity through expert pairwise comparisons, considering criteria such as scope, cost, risk and resource availability. Fig. 1 Overview of the surface mining area under investigation. After identifying the most robust strategy, a gap analysis was performed to detect discrepancies between technical proposals and stakeholder expectations. Mitigation actions were then recommended to reduce resistance and improve alignment. A multidisciplinary team of seven experts was assembled to support the deployment of the methodology and five stakeholder groups engaged for the research execution. The QFFA methodology follows a structured workflow of 19 steps (Fig. 2). The final output is a decision matrix that ranks alternative resilience strategies based on aggregated stakeholder preferences and weighted activity scores, providing a comprehensive tool for informed decision-making in post-mining transformation planning. Results and discussion The QFFA methodology was applied to the Megalopolis lignite mine in Greece, a large-scale surface mining site undergoing transformation (Fig. 1). The site includes four exhausted pits and reclaimed dumping areas, now being repurposed for sustainable land uses. Three alternative resilience strategies were evaluated: the development of agro-economy and small industrial activities (S1), the deployment of renewable energy infrastructures (S2), and the conservation and restoration of the natural environment and cultural heritage (S3). Each strategy was assessed based on 15 resilience activities, which were grouped into engineering studies, geotechnical stabilization and hydroecological restoration. Expert judgment was used to conduct pairwise comparisons through the AHP, resulting in relative weights for each activity. The most critical activities identified included antiseismic and slope stabilization measures (36.9 percent), landscape reclamation (25.1 percent), climate hazard investigations (37.2 percent) and flood control engineering (42.6 percent). All consistency ratios were below 0.10, confirming the reliability of the expert evaluations. Stakeholder preferences were quantified using a 0 to 5 scale, distinguishing between driving (supportive) and restraining (resistant) forces. These preferences were aggregated with the AHP weights to calculate a cumulative score for each strategy. Strategy S1 scored 3.779, S2 scored 5.055, and S3 scored 6.422. Thus, strategy S3 demonstrated as the most robust, with 80 percent of its activities receiving positive stakeholder support. It emphasized ecological restoration, biodiversity enhancement and cultural heritage preservation. Fig. 2 The methodology workflow. A gap analysis was conducted to identify discrepancies between stakeholder preferences and proposed technical measures. Significant negative gaps were found in activities such as landform and soil improvement, landscape reclamation and site preparation for renewable energy facilities. These gaps indicated resistance due to perceived environmental risks, aesthetic concerns or socioeconomic disruptions. Mitigation actions were proposed, including revisions to project scopes, renewed stakeholder engagement, and reformulation of activity content to better align with stakeholder expectations. The analysis of stakeholder dynamics revealed that governmental and academic institutions, local governments and professional associations acted as strong driving forces. In contrast, social interest groups and technical/industrial actors exhibited mixed or resistant attitudes, particularly toward activities involving new infrastructure or landform modifications. These findings underscore the importance of early, transparent and inclusive stakeholder engagement to ensure project legitimacy and minimize social resistance. Conclusions The main conclusions of the study are: The QFFA methodology offers a structured and replicable framework for evaluating resilience strategies in post-mining transformation projects. By integrating FFA and AHP, the approach enables the quantification of stakeholder preferences and the ranking of alternative strategies based on both technical significance and social acceptance. One of the key strengths of the methodology lies in its capacity to capture the complexity of post-mining contexts, where diverse stakeholder groups — each with unique interests, concerns and levels of influence — must be reconciled. The approach also presents challenges. Assembling a qualified and representative expert team requires careful coordination, and intragroup conflicts may arise due to differing interpretations and priorities. The role of QFFA coordinator is therefore critical in facilitating consensus and maintaining methodological rigor throughout the process. The findings of the case study highlight the importance of early and inclusive stakeholder engagement, especially in activities perceived as environmentally or socially disruptive.Resilience is a cornerstone of sustainable post-mining transformation. It encompasses both proactive and reactive engineering measures designed to mitigate natural hazards and ensure long-term stability and ecological integrity. References A list of all references is available on the full paper.

Exploring stakeholder preferences in evaluation of resilience strategies for post-mining transformation projects

Authored by: Philip-Mark Spanidis, Julia Christakopoulou, Christina Siontorou, Francis Pavloudakis, Aikaterini Servou and Christos Roumpos

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