Critical minerals, power infrastructure and the AI energy surge: Mining’s expanding role

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping U.S. electricity demand and the U.S. industrial sector in ways that directly elevate the strategic importance of domestic mining. What began as a technology story has become an energy and materials story, positioning critical minerals at the intersection of data-center growth, power-generation expansion and transmission infrastructure. Surging demand for reliable power After more than a decade of relatively flat electricity consumption, U.S. demand is rising sharply. Data centers, driven largely by AI workloads, currently account for roughly 4 to 6 percent of national electricity use. Multiple recent forecasts project that share could reach 9 to 15 percent by 2030 and approach 20 percent by 2035. Goldman Sachs Research estimates U.S. data-center power demand will more than double from 31 GW in 2025 to 66 GW in 2027. The U.S. Energy Information Administration and other analyses confirm that commercial-sector growth, led by data centers, is now outpacing residential demand. Hyperscalers have been the most visible near-term catalyst. Yet, the deeper signal is broader. The country needs substantial new dispatchable generation and transmission capacity to serve both AI loads and the population’s growing electricity needs. Utilities and developers are responding with an “all-of-the-above” approach to meet demand that includes natural gas, nuclear restarts and new builds, renewables and on-site generation. Transmission and distribution upgrades are equally essential and mineral intensive. Critical minerals as the enabling layer Every megawatt of new generation and every mile of new transmission requires copper, aluminum, steel, rare earths and a suite of other minerals. Copper alone can dominate the materials intensity of grid expansion, substations, transformers, and data-center power and cooling systems. Recent industry estimates show that power infrastructure — not just semiconductors — drives the majority of mineral demand associated with the AI build-out. Grid transmission and distribution account for a large share of that copper requirement. Domestic mining of these materials is therefore not peripheral to the energy transition or the digital economy; it is foundational. Projects that supply copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, coal, uranium and rare earths directly enable the generation and delivery systems that AI data centers and the broader grid require. Without expanding domestic mining and mineral production and refining, the United States remains exposed to supply-chain concentration and geopolitical risk at the precise moment demand is accelerating. Policy and permitting context Federal policy is changing to reflect this reality. The FAST-41 framework has been expanded to cover AI-linked infrastructure and critical-minerals projects, including copper developments that support the power-equipment supply chain. Executive actions have sought to accelerate permitting for large data-center and associated energy projects. The House has passed the bipartisan SPEED Act, which aims to streamline National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) reviews, narrow the scope of analysis, limit certain litigation delays and improve project certainty. As of mid-2026 the measure remains pending in the Senate. These developments build on earlier permitting-reform efforts and create both opportunity and residual uncertainty for mining. Faster, more predictable reviews for energy and mineral projects would help align supply with the materializing demand. At the same time, compliance expectations have not disappeared. Enforcement remains active, and unresolved scientific or procedural disputes continue to generate litigation risk. Implications for miners The data-center wave is best understood as a catalyst rather than a permanent end-state. Hyperscalers are already shifting toward third-party leasing and on-site generation strategies. The longer-term opportunity for mining lies in the sustained need for reliable, resilient power infrastructure that serves the entire economy. Companies that can deliver critical minerals with strong environmental performance, defensible data and community engagement will be well positioned to participate in both the near-term AI-driven build-out and the broader energy-market expansion that follows. The Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration’s (SME) Government & Public Affairs Committee (GPAC) continues to monitor these intersecting trends — critical minerals policy, energy-infrastructure permitting and the evolving regulatory landscape — so that SME members have timely information and a voice in the discussions that shape project outcomes. Looking ahead The mining industry’s ability to supply the materials for power generation, transmission and advanced computing will help determine whether the United States can meet rising electricity demand while maintaining energy security and environmental standards. Continued engagement by industry professionals with policymakers, regulators and the public remains essential. GPAC welcomes further dialogue on how mining can responsibly support this next phase of American energy and technology infrastructure. (Joseph R. Pere is managing director, Gulf Services, at OMS Group LLC, and Heather Lammers, Ph.D., Q.P., is program director, Undergraduate Mining Engineering, at the Colorado School of Mines.) Selected references Bloomberg NEF. Data center electricity demand outlooks, 2026. Goldman Sachs Research. U.S. data center power demand projections, 2026. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy. Data Center Energy Usage Report update, 2026. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2026 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, 2026. Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council. FAST-41 coverage expansions for AI infrastructure and critical minerals, 2026.

Critical minerals, power infrastructure and the AI energy surge: Mining’s expanding role

Authored by: Joseph R. Pere and Heather Lammers

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